The U.S. and Iran have reached an initial peace deal, prompting stranded tankers to leave the Strait of Hormuz and pushing Brent crude down 1.8% to $72.4 a barrel, back to pre-Iran war levels. As the world’s No. 3 oil importer, India has seen its inflation and growth outlook improve, lifting GIFT Nifty futures and signalling a higher open for the Nifty 50. Asian equities climbed 1.3%, while strong chip stocks further boosted risk appetite.

On June 24, the TSX index closed down 0.6% at 34,736.09, its lowest level since June 11. WTI crude settled 3.9% lower at $70.34 a barrel as more previously stranded tankers moved through the Strait of Hormuz, easing supply concerns. Gold fell 2.6% and copper slid 3.4% as a stronger U.S. dollar and rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes weighed on commodities. The energy and materials sectors dropped 3.2% and 3.7%, respectively, dragging the broader market.

Markets priced in higher odds of another Federal Reserve rate hike in December, with CME FedWatch showing the probability rising above 70%. Tech shares came under pressure amid concerns over the durability of AI capital spending and chip-sector warnings, including Cerebras lowering its profit-margin outlook and Micron sliding 3.2% premarket. The Nasdaq fell 0.37% and the S&P 500 declined 0.12%. Oil slid to its lowest since the start of the Iran war, lifting airline stocks, but not enough to offset the drag from technology.

SpaceX has been public for only two weeks, but short interest has climbed to 13% from 8%, representing roughly 83 million shares sold short. The stock is down about 30% from its post-debut peak. Borrow costs remain low at around 1% while utilization has risen to 39%, suggesting active short positioning alongside ample stock available to lend. The shift underscores widening investor disagreement over the company’s $2 trillion valuation and the pace of profit delivery.

The dollar index (DXY) rose to 101.71, its highest level in 13 months. Markets lifted the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in July to 35% from 9% a week earlier, while September pricing moved above 70%. Selling pressure in technology stocks and a stalemate in U.S.-Iran talks added to safe-haven demand. The euro, sterling, Australian dollar and yen all weakened, with the yen sliding to 161.66, close to its lowest level since 1986.

Micron Technology is set to report fiscal third-quarter results after the close on Wednesday, with analysts on average expecting profit to surge more than 1,000% year on year and revenue to climb nearly 285%. With the stock seen as priced for perfection, investors are on guard for any sign of softer guidance, slowing demand, margin pressure or a cautious tone from management. The semiconductor sector has already been volatile, and the Nasdaq is down more than 5% this week as global tech shares come under pressure.

Brent crude futures fell 0.8% as markets anticipated oil tankers stranded since the start of the Iran war would move out of the Strait of Hormuz, easing near-term supply pressure. As the world’s third-largest oil importer, India stands to benefit from cheaper crude through lower import costs and a softer inflation outlook. The report also notes the Reserve Bank of India governor’s view that it is premature to discuss rate hikes and a rise in bank shares, but the key tradable catalyst is the shift in oil-supply expectations.

More oil tankers stranded in the Gulf since the start of the Iran war are expected to move through the Strait of Hormuz, pressuring Brent crude futures, which fell 0.5% to trade near four-month lows. As the world’s No. 3 oil importer and consumer, India typically benefits from lower oil prices through an improved inflation and growth outlook. However, rising expectations of tighter U.S. Federal Reserve policy have weighed on emerging-market risk appetite, offsetting some of the oil-related support. Foreign investors were small net buyers of Indian shares in the session, even as year-to-date outflows total $29.84 billion.

Alimentation Couche-Tard reported fiscal 2024 fourth-quarter results, benefiting from sharp oil-price swings tied to the war in Iran. Its U.S. gasoline gross margin reached 52.44 cents a gallon, up 9.17 cents from a year earlier and the highest level in more than five years. The margin was well above the industry average of 35 cents a gallon for the period. Quarterly net profit doubled year over year to $863.4 million.