The U.S. and Iran have reached a phased framework for nuclear talks that includes a 60-day waiver for Iranian crude exports, lifting a naval blockade and conditional access to frozen assets, while Iran pledged zero fees for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Washington retains the option to end negotiations immediately if Tehran’s assurances prove false. Prediction markets put the probability of Hormuz traffic returning to pre-disruption norms at 44% by July 31 and 86% by Dec. 31, while Brent has fallen below $75 a barrel and the IEA estimates the UAE is exporting at nearly 85% of prewar levels.