The U.S. and Iran have reached an initial peace deal, prompting stranded tankers to leave the Strait of Hormuz and pushing Brent crude down 1.8% to $72.4 a barrel, back to pre-Iran war levels. As the world’s No. 3 oil importer, India has seen its inflation and growth outlook improve, lifting GIFT Nifty futures and signalling a higher open for the Nifty 50. Asian equities climbed 1.3%, while strong chip stocks further boosted risk appetite.

The U.S. and Iran agreed on a 60-day ceasefire roadmap, keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and prompting the U.S. Treasury to authorize temporary Iranian oil sales. WTI crude fell 3.5% to $70.64 a barrel after dipping below $70 intraday, while Brent slid 3.8% to $74.13, returning to near prewar levels. Gold dropped 2.6% to $4,003 an ounce and was down 11.5% month to date, marking its worst monthly performance since 2008. The sudden geopolitical de-escalation drove a rapid repricing across energy and precious metals.

Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that major oil companies have not lowered retail gasoline prices in step with falling crude costs, calling it “gouging,” and said he directed the Justice Department to investigate. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains only a small fraction of pre-war levels, disrupting roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments. U.S. crude prices are still about 25% higher than at the start of the year, while the national average gasoline price stands at $3.92 a gallon, up 21.7% from a year earlier. The episode underscores how prolonged geopolitical tensions and escalating policy intervention are jointly pressuring energy supply stability.

Canada’s S&P/TSX composite index fell 148.11 points to 34,779.27 in early trading, pressured by a sharp drop in oil prices. The August crude oil contract slid US$3.46 to US$69.75 per barrel after progress in U.S.-Iran talks toward a permanent end to their war and rising traffic through the Strait of Hormuz eased supply-disruption concerns. Energy and base metal shares were among the laggards, while gold and the three main U.S. stock indexes moved higher, indicating a shift toward risk assets.

The U.S. and Iran have reached a phased framework for nuclear talks that includes a 60-day waiver for Iranian crude exports, lifting a naval blockade and conditional access to frozen assets, while Iran pledged zero fees for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Washington retains the option to end negotiations immediately if Tehran’s assurances prove false. Prediction markets put the probability of Hormuz traffic returning to pre-disruption norms at 44% by July 31 and 86% by Dec. 31, while Brent has fallen below $75 a barrel and the IEA estimates the UAE is exporting at nearly 85% of prewar levels.

Fitch Ratings affirmed Indian Oil Corporation’s BBB- rating with a Stable outlook, while warning that FY27 EBITDA could fall 50%-60% as the Iran conflict lifts import costs. It expects FY28 earnings to rebound as crude prices move back toward mid-cycle levels and refining margins recover. The agency said IOC’s policy role and full state backing underpin its credit profile, and that the pressure stems from higher costs rather than a direct supply disruption, according to Fitch.

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) said it has coordinated with Iran, Oman, the United States and others and confirmed that conditions for safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz have been met. More than 11,000 stranded seafarers are set to begin transiting the waterway, which previously carried about 20% of global seaborne oil volumes. Following the announcement, Brent and WTI crude futures fell 0.45% and 0.48%, respectively. The report also noted weaker U.S. tech stocks and mixed Asian equity performance, while the main catalyst was the confirmation that Hormuz transits can resume.

The United States and Iran signed a 60-day memorandum to continue nuclear negotiations, and Washington formally waived oil sanctions on Tehran for two months, opening a path for Iran to unlock as much as $10 billion in export revenue. Over the same period, the national average gasoline price slid to $3.93 a gallon, down 14% from a May peak, and Brent crude fell below $80 a barrel. Although later talks broke down and fresh reports emerged of another blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, expectations of near-term supply increases have already weighed on energy prices.

A sharp global selloff in technology stocks pushed Nasdaq 100 futures down 2.8%, while S&P 500 and Dow futures also fell. SpaceX extended its decline for a fourth session, including a $400 billion one-day market-value wipeout, as AI-linked chip and hardware names such as Nvidia, Tesla and Intel fell more than 5%. South Korea’s KOSPI slid 10%, with Samsung and SK Hynix down more than 12%. The moves were driven by fears that Iran war-related disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could lift inflation and interest-rate expectations, weighing on high-valuation growth stocks.

Following talks in Switzerland, the United States issued a temporary sanctions waiver that lets Iran settle oil exports in U.S. dollars, the biggest easing since sanctions were reimposed in 2018. The change could reduce the financial and logistical friction surrounding Iranian crude shipments and enable more barrels to enter global markets through lawful channels. The prospect of additional supply has already pressured oil prices lower.